Substate Preview: 3A-2
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The favorite: The #1 ranked team in 3A, Clear Lake, is the top seed in the substate, but the Lions got a pretty difficult draw here, and there is a chance that they’ll be without two of their best players,…
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Continue ReadingThe favorite: The #1 ranked team in 3A, Clear Lake, is the top seed in the substate, but the Lions got a pretty difficult draw here, and there is a chance that they’ll be without two of their best players, battling injuries. If they both miss the postseason, it will obviously open up the substate for a number of other teams. Thomas Meyer Thomas Meyer 6'4" | SF Clear Lake | 2025 State IA (12.4, 7.8 rebounds) and Titan Schmitt Titan Schmitt 6'0" | SG Clear Lake | 2025 State IA (11.3, 4.0 assists), a pair of juniors and the team’s top two scorers, are currently sidelined, and we’re unsure of the prognosis moving forward. Meyer is a fantastic athlete, committed to Iowa to play football, while Schmitt is the team’s best shooting threat and a capable ball-handler and playmaker. If they aren’t able to go, senior guard Cael Stephany Cael Stephany 6'1" | PG Clear Lake | 2024 State IA (10.0) and forward Dylan Litzel Dylan Litzel 6'4" | PF Clear Lake | 2024 State IA (10.0) will have to be the team’s go-to options, while Gavin Anderson (7.8), sophomores Trevor Theobald Trevor Theobald 6'0" | PG Clear Lake | 2026 IA (6.7, 5.4 assists) and Max Larson Max Larson 6'4" | PF Clear Lake | 2026 IA (4.3), and freshman Jaxson McIntire Jaxson McIntire 6'2" | SF Clear Lake | 2027 State IA (5.3) will be thrust into bigger roles. This is a program filled with good athletes that play great defense, but how successful their postseason run is will come down to health.
The biggest threat(s): Ballard has a few advantages working for them at the bottom of the bracket. First, they’ll get their first two games at home, a major edge in the substate semifinals. And second, the Raccoon River is largely considered a tougher league than Humboldt’s North Central Conference, so the Bombers are perhaps a little more tested as we enter postseason play. They’re led by sophomore guard Jude Gibson Jude Gibson 6'0" | PG Ballard | 2026 State IA (17.7, 5.0 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 3.0 steals), one of the most electric players in the state’s 2026 class. A quick guard who can get to the rim routinely, he’s also a gifted passer and solid defender who puts constant pressure on opposing teams on both ends of the floor. Jackson Brown Jackson Brown 6'1" | SG Ballard | 2025 State IA (14.5, 44.8 3P%), a junior sharpshooter, and Mason Gatchel Mason Gatchel 6'1" | SG Ballard | 2025 State IA (6.2, 40.0 3P%), join Gibson in the backcourt and are solid complements to his dribble-drive style. Nolan Cogdill Nolan Cogdill 6'7" | SF Ballard | 2024 State IA (10.3, 6.2 rebounds) has turned into a really solid contributor as well for the Bombers, providing some needed length and size, and he’s also capable of stepping out and knocking down the occasional 3, pulling his defender out and allowing Gibson more room to operate. This is a team full of pieces that complement each other very well.
Few teams in Iowa high school basketball have embraced the modern age of the game to the level that Humboldt has. The Wildcats average 28.6 3-point attempts per game, and while they don’t shoot it at an eye-popping clip (33.5 3P% as a team), they have a number of different weapons who shoot in bunches, and if a few of them get hot, this team can put up points in the blink of an eye. They like to play an up-tempo style, averaging nearly 74 points a night, led by senior Evan Hatcher Evan Hatcher 6'3" | PF Humboldt | 2024 State IA (20.5, 9.3 rebounds, 39.1 3P%). At 6-1, he’s a bit undersized as a 4, but he’s physical on the glass and has a nice looking stroke from deep. Elliot Carlson (18.2, 34.1 3P%) and Coen Matson (11.8, 43.7 3P%) are the other headliners for the ‘Cats. Matson leads the team in assists and has been their most accurate shooter, while Carlson leads the team in made 3s with 46. Combined, the trio has made 127 3-pointers this season, and that type of volume could lead to a run.
The dark horses: A pair of teams that have probably underachieved a bit this season are lurking in that 4-5 game and will be anxious to get a shot at a potentially short-handed Clear Lake team. Algona gets the first round game at home, which probably gives them a bit of an edge. After a shaky start to the season, the Bulldogs, who qualified for the state tournament last season, have played better ball after the holiday break. Junior guard Ben Helmers Ben Helmers 6'4" | PG Algona | 2025 State IA (21.0, 2.8 steals) is the catalyst for this group, and as he goes, they’ll go. He’s capable of having explosive scoring nights, pairing his great handles with a quick first step to blow by defenders and get to the rim. Future Iowa State quarterback Alex Manske Alex Manske 6'3" | SG Algona | 2025 State IA (17.1, 6.9 rebounds), a fellow junior, is a force in the paint who can also step out and stretch the floor a bit, while senior lead guard Landon Welp Landon Welp 5'11" | PG Algona | 2024 State IA (7.9, 4.1 assists) is the straw that stirs the drink for this group, a quick, high IQ guard who gets his teammates involved at a high level.
North Polk reached the 3A semifinals last season, and while they lost a good chunk of production off that roster, senior guard Reggie Postel Reggie Postel 6'1" | SG North Polk | 2024 State IA (19.3, 3.0 assists) returned to give them a leader on both ends of the floor. Forward Graedan Sullivan (9.3, 6.9 rebounds) has provided some size in the paint, while Charlie Bunkers (7.7) and Brady Schultz (6.0) have teamed with Postel to give the Comets some additional perimeter scoring. Postel has played in a lot of big games over the last few years, and this is a group that may be peaking, winners of five of their last six games, including quality wins over Ballard and Bondurant-Farrar.
Players to watch
2025
Thomas Meyer
Thomas
Meyer
6'4" | SF
Clear Lake | 2025
State
IA
, Clear Lake
2025
Titan Schmitt
Titan
Schmitt
6'0" | SG
Clear Lake | 2025
State
IA
, Clear Lake
2024
Cael Stephany
Cael
Stephany
6'1" | PG
Clear Lake | 2024
State
IA
, Clear Lake
2024
Dylan Litzel
Dylan
Litzel
6'4" | PF
Clear Lake | 2024
State
IA
, Clear Lake
2026
Trevor Theobald
Trevor
Theobald
6'0" | PG
Clear Lake | 2026
IA
, Clear Lake
2026
Jude Gibson
Jude
Gibson
6'0" | PG
Ballard | 2026
State
IA
, Ballard
2025
Jackson Brown
Jackson
Brown
6'1" | SG
Ballard | 2025
State
IA
, Ballard
2024
Nolan Cogdill
Nolan
Cogdill
6'7" | SF
Ballard | 2024
State
IA
, Ballard
2024
Evan Hatcher
Evan
Hatcher
6'3" | PF
Humboldt | 2024
State
IA
, Humboldt
2025 Elliot Carlson, Humboldt
2025 Coen Matson, Humboldt
2025
Ben Helmers
Ben
Helmers
6'4" | PG
Algona | 2025
State
IA
, Algona
2025
Alex Manske
Alex
Manske
6'3" | SG
Algona | 2025
State
IA
, Algona
2024
Landon Welp
Landon
Welp
5'11" | PG
Algona | 2024
State
IA
, Algona
2024
Reggie Postel
Reggie
Postel
6'1" | SG
North Polk | 2024
State
IA
, North Polk
2024 Graedan Sullivan, North Polk
2025 Cael Bruning, Spencer
2024
Briar Klaver
Briar
Klaver
6'4" | SF
Webster City | 2024
State
IA
, Webster City
2025 Wes Van Pelt, Boone
SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION
Clear Lake vs. Ballard
If we knew for certain that Clear Lake would be at full strength heading into this substate final, the Lions would probably be the pick. But with the question marks regarding the two most impactful players on the roster, we have to side with Ballard here. The Bombers, behind a game game from Jude Gibson Jude Gibson 6'0" | PG Ballard | 2026 State IA , punch their ticket to Des Moines.