Substate Preview: 3A-2

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/01/3A-2.png"><img src="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/01/3A-2.png?w=616" alt="" class="wp-image-2348314" /></a></figure>   The favorite: The #1 ranked team in 3A, Clear Lake, is the top seed in the substate, but the Lions got a pretty difficult draw here, and there is a chance that they'll be without two of their best players, battling injuries. If they both miss the postseason, it will obviously open up the substate for a number of other teams. [player_tooltip player_id='1381416' first='Thomas' last='Meyer'] (12.4, 7.8 rebounds) and [player_tooltip player_id='1759906' first='Titan' last='Schmitt'] (11.3, 4.0 assists), a pair of juniors and the team's top two scorers, are currently sidelined, and we're unsure of the prognosis moving forward. Meyer is a fantastic athlete, committed to Iowa to play football, while Schmitt is the team's best shooting threat and a capable ball-handler and playmaker. If they aren't able to go, senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='2325311' first='Cael' last='Stephany'] (10.0) and forward [player_tooltip player_id='2325304' first='Dylan' last='Litzel'] (10.0) will have to be the team's go-to options, while Gavin Anderson (7.8), sophomores [player_tooltip player_id='2389820' first='Trevor' last='Theobald'] (6.7, 5.4 assists) and [player_tooltip player_id='2413498' first='Max' last='Larson'] (4.3), and freshman [player_tooltip player_id='2419796' first='Jaxson' last='McIntire'] (5.3) will be thrust into bigger roles. This is a program filled with good athletes that play great defense, but how successful their postseason run is will come down to health.   The biggest threat(s): Ballard has a few advantages working for them at the bottom of the bracket. First, they'll get their first two games at home, a major edge in the substate semifinals. And second, the Raccoon River is largely considered a tougher league than Humboldt's North Central Conference, so the Bombers are perhaps a little more tested as we enter postseason play. They're led by sophomore guard [player_tooltip player_id='1765518' first='Jude' last='Gibson'] (17.7, 5.0 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 3.0 steals), one of the most electric players in the state's 2026 class. A quick guard who can get to the rim routinely, he's also a gifted passer and solid defender who puts constant pressure on opposing teams on both ends of the floor. [player_tooltip player_id='2397342' first='Jackson' last='Brown'] (14.5, 44.8 3P%), a junior sharpshooter, and [player_tooltip player_id='2398123' first='Mason' last='Gatchel'] (6.2, 40.0 3P%), join Gibson in the backcourt and are solid complements to his dribble-drive style. [player_tooltip player_id='1256298' first='Nolan' last='Cogdill'] (10.3, 6.2 rebounds) has turned into a really solid contributor as well for the Bombers, providing some needed length and size, and he's also capable of stepping out and knocking down the occasional 3, pulling his defender out and allowing Gibson more room to operate. This is a team full of pieces that complement each other very well.   Few teams in Iowa high school basketball have embraced the modern age of the game to the level that Humboldt has. The Wildcats average 28.6 3-point attempts per game, and while they don't shoot it at an eye-popping clip (33.5 3P% as a team), they have a number of different weapons who shoot in bunches, and if a few of them get hot, this team can put up points in the blink of an eye. They like to play an up-tempo style, averaging nearly 74 points a night, led by senior [player_tooltip player_id='1938208' first='Evan' last='Hatcher'] (20.5, 9.3 rebounds, 39.1 3P%). At 6-1, he's a bit undersized as a 4, but he's physical on the glass and has a nice looking stroke from deep. [player_tooltip player_id='2474854' first='Elliot' last='Carlson'] (18.2, 34.1 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='2511501' first='Coen' last='Matson'] (11.8, 43.7 3P%) are the other headliners for the 'Cats. Matson leads the team in assists and has been their most accurate shooter, while Carlson leads the team in made 3s with 46. Combined, the trio has made 127 3-pointers this season, and that type of volume could lead to a run.   The dark horses: A pair of teams that have probably underachieved a bit this season are lurking in that 4-5 game and will be anxious to get a shot at a potentially short-handed Clear Lake team. Algona gets the first round game at home, which probably gives them a bit of an edge. After a shaky start to the season, the Bulldogs, who qualified for the state tournament last season, have played better ball after the holiday break. Junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1288917' first='Ben' last='Helmers'] (21.0, 2.8 steals) is the catalyst for this group, and as he goes, they'll go. He's capable of having explosive scoring nights, pairing his great handles with a quick first step to blow by defenders and get to the rim. Future Iowa State quarterback [player_tooltip player_id='1484419' first='Alex' last='Manske'] (17.1, 6.9 rebounds), a fellow junior, is a force in the paint who can also step out and stretch the floor a bit, while senior lead guard [player_tooltip player_id='1587393' first='Landon' last='Welp'] (7.9, 4.1 assists) is the straw that stirs the drink for this group, a quick, high IQ guard who gets his teammates involved at a high level.   North Polk reached the 3A semifinals last season, and while they lost a good chunk of production off that roster, senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1751215' first='Reggie' last='Postel'] (19.3, 3.0 assists) returned to give them a leader on both ends of the floor. Forward Graedan Sullivan (9.3, 6.9 rebounds) has provided some size in the paint, while Charlie Bunkers (7.7) and Brady Schultz (6.0) have teamed with Postel to give the Comets some additional perimeter scoring. Postel has played in a lot of big games over the last few years, and this is a group that may be peaking, winners of five of their last six games, including quality wins over Ballard and Bondurant-Farrar.   Players to watch 2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1381416' first='Thomas' last='Meyer'], Clear Lake 2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1759906' first='Titan' last='Schmitt'], Clear Lake 2024 [player_tooltip player_id='2325311' first='Cael' last='Stephany'], Clear Lake 2024 [player_tooltip player_id='2325304' first='Dylan' last='Litzel'], Clear Lake 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2389820' first='Trevor' last='Theobald'], Clear Lake 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765518' first='Jude' last='Gibson'], Ballard 2025 [player_tooltip player_id='2397342' first='Jackson' last='Brown'], Ballard 2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1256298' first='Nolan' last='Cogdill'], Ballard 2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1938208' first='Evan' last='Hatcher'], Humboldt 2025 [player_tooltip player_id='2474854' first='Elliot' last='Carlson'], Humboldt 2025 [player_tooltip player_id='2511501' first='Coen' last='Matson'], Humboldt 2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1288917' first='Ben' last='Helmers'], Algona 2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1484419' first='Alex' last='Manske'], Algona 2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1587393' first='Landon' last='Welp'], Algona 2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1751215' first='Reggie' last='Postel'], North Polk 2024 Graedan Sullivan, North Polk 2025 [player_tooltip player_id='2721680' first='Cael' last='Bruning'], Spencer 2024 [player_tooltip player_id='2284843' first='Briar' last='Klaver'], Webster City 2025 Wes Van Pelt, Boone   SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION   Clear Lake vs. Ballard   If we knew for certain that Clear Lake would be at full strength heading into this substate final, the Lions would probably be the pick. But with the question marks regarding the two most impactful players on the roster, we have to side with Ballard here. The Bombers, behind a game game from [player_tooltip player_id='1765518' first='Jude' last='Gibson'], punch their ticket to Des Moines.