Substate Preview: 3A-5

The favorite: Xavier earned the top seed in this substate that will be more difficult than the records of the teams involved would indicate. Five of the teams in the substate play in 4A-heavy leagues (Xavier, Wahlert, Western Dubuque in the MVC; Assumption and Central DeWitt in the MAC). The Saints were recently blasted by 4A #1 Kennedy, but outside of that games, their other five losses have come by a combined 13 points. Senior wing Aidan Yamilkoski Aidan Yamilkoski 6'4" | SG Xavier | 2023 State IA (18.0, 41.9 3P%) leads a trio of double-figure scorers. A talented three-level scorer who can create for himself, he has really improved over the last two years as an all-around scoring threat, turning into a deadly shooter and a skilled playmaker. Junior guard Joseph Bean (14.6, 4.1 assists) is a talented point guard who can dominate games as a scorer or passer and defender, and senior wing Josef Lemker Josef Lemker 6'2" | SG Xavier | 2023 State IA (11.3, 43.6 3P%) has provided additional shooting. The improvement of junior forward Tyler Netolicky Tyler Netolicky 6'8" | C Xavier | 2024 State IA (8.4, 7.1 rebounds), a 6-8 big man who provides some rim protection and interior scoring, has been a huge addition to the team this season. The Saints have arguably the top two players in the substate in Yamilkoski and Bean, and should be considered the favorite here.

The biggest threats: Wahlert has been a little disappointing this season, sitting with an 11-9 record at the time of this writing, but they’ve been really good in the last month, winning six of their last seven games, and looking like they’re finally starting to put everything together. The Golden Eagles are led by a quintet of seniors, including a trio of double-figure scorers in Nolan Berendes Nolan Berendes 6'4" | SF Wahlert Catholic | 2023 State IA (13.6), Duke Faley Duke Faley 6'5" | C Wahlert Catholic | 2023 State IA (12.1), and Jack Walsh (10.2), with Seamus Crahan Seamus Crahan 6'6" | SF Wahlert Catholic | 2023 State IA (8.4, 3.5 assists) sitting just outside. Berendes and Crahan are both long, athletic wings who get into passing lanes and impact the game defensively with their length and playmaking. Faley is a physical forward who is headed to Iowa to throw on their track & field team, and Walsh is a highly efficient forward who is shooting 61% from the floor. They’ve been really good defensively, allowing just 53.5 points a game, and are peaking at the right time.

Assumption has been a bit streaky this year, going on mini-winning streaks and losing streaks throughout the season. A three-game winning streak followed by a three-game losing streak followed by a three-game winning streak, and you get the point. The Knights lost a lot of production from last year’s state tournament team, so a bit of inconsistency could maybe be expected, but there is still quite a bit of talent on this roster and they’ll be heard from in this substate. Senior guard Rico Byrd Rico Byrd 6'1" | SG Assumption | 2023 State IA (14.0) leads the team in scoring, an athletic wing who loves to attack the rim. Sophomore Damyen Jackson Damyen Jackson 6'0" | PG Assumption | 2025 State IA (12.8, 3.8 assists) is a physical guard who can score from all three levels, creating shots for himself and others, and Luke Klostermann Luke Klostermann 6'4" | PF Assumption | 2023 State IA (9.9) was a solid role player on last year’s team and has been good again this year as a veteran leader. Three sophomores comprise the top five for the Knights, and as with most young teams, they can struggle at times with turnovers (14.2 a game), an area that will need to be cleaned up heading into postseason play.

The dark horses: Western Dubuque, like Xavier and Wahlert, plays against a 4A-heavy schedule, and will be well prepared for postseason play. Senior guard Daviyon Gaston Daviyon Gaston 6'1" | SG Western Dubuque | 2023 State IA (16.1, 3.3 assists) is an athletic, quick guard who can get to the rim and finish at a high level, while junior forward Kanyon Bryte Kanyon Bryte 6'6" | C Western Dubuque | 2024 State IA (12.8, 7.8 rebounds) is an efficient interior scorer. The Bobcats don’t shoot it well from the arc (24.3 3P%), which hurts, but they pound the offensive glass, gaining extra possessions. Playing against a tough schedule and having a strong one-two punch in Gaston and Bryte will make this group dangerous.

Had Maquoketa not lost leading scorer Tye Hardin Tye Hardin 6'0" | PG Maquoketa | 2024 State IA to a season-ending injury, the Cardinals would’ve been a very popular dark horse pick to come out of whichever substate they had been placed in (likely a higher seed in a different substate with him playing). Still, the Cards do have a number of talented scoring threats and can be dangerous when their shots are falling. Junior wing Carter Meyer Carter Meyer 5'11" | SF Maquoketa | 2024 State IA (15.9) is the team’s leading scorer in Hardin’s absence. He’s a 35% 3-point shooter who can get to the rim and create shots for himself. Ty Hinz (14.7, 42.1 3P%) is a quick-twtich guard who can blow by defenders and knock down shots from anywhere on the floor, while Lucas Ihrig Lucas Ihrig 6'0" | SG Maquoketa | 2023 State IA (11.9) and Kasey Coakley Kasey Coakley 5'11" | SG Maquoketa | 2023 State IA (10.9, 39.8 3P%) are also dangerous scorers. The Cardinals are averaging 73.3 points a game, third in the class, and have proven that they can put up points on just about anyone.

Players to watch
2023 Aidan Yamilkoski Aidan Yamilkoski 6'4" | SG Xavier | 2023 State IA , Xavier
2024 Joseph Bean, Xavier
2023 Josef Lemker Josef Lemker 6'2" | SG Xavier | 2023 State IA , Xavier
2024 Tyler Netolicky Tyler Netolicky 6'8" | C Xavier | 2024 State IA , Xavier
2023 Nolan Berendes Nolan Berendes 6'4" | SF Wahlert Catholic | 2023 State IA , Wahlert
2023 Duke Faley Duke Faley 6'5" | C Wahlert Catholic | 2023 State IA , Wahlert
2023 Jack Walsh, Wahlert
2023 Rico Byrd Rico Byrd 6'1" | SG Assumption | 2023 State IA , Assumption
2025 Damyen Jackson Damyen Jackson 6'0" | PG Assumption | 2025 State IA , Assumption
2024 Carter Meyer Carter Meyer 5'11" | SF Maquoketa | 2024 State IA , Maquoketa
2024 Ty Hinz, Maquoketa
2023 Lucas Ihrig Lucas Ihrig 6'0" | SG Maquoketa | 2023 State IA , Maquoketa
2023 Daviyon Gaston Daviyon Gaston 6'1" | SG Western Dubuque | 2023 State IA , Western Dubuque
2024 Kanyon Bryte Kanyon Bryte 6'6" | C Western Dubuque | 2024 State IA , Western Dubuque
2025 Ryan Watters Ryan Watters 6'6" | PF Central DeWitt | 2025 State IA , Central DeWitt
2023 Matthew Watters Matthew Watters 6'2" | SF Central DeWitt | 2023 State IA , Central DeWitt
2023 Easton Tupa Easton Tupa 6'4" | PG Center Point-Urbana | 2023 State IA , Center Point-Urbana
2023 Brandon Miller Brandon Miller 6'4" | PF Center Point-Urbana | 2023 State IA , Center Point-Urbana
2025 Andrew Rotzoll, Clear Creek Amana
2024 Haiden Hardy, Clear Creek Amana

SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION

Xavier vs. Wahlert

Wahlert beat Xavier back on January 10, 57-52, at home. This is an interesting matchup between the potent offense of Xavier and the stellar defense of Wahlert. On a neutral site, we’ll side with the team that has the most dynamic playmakers and scorers, and that’s Xavier, but it’ll be a battle.