Substate Preview: 3A-1

<!-- wp:image {"id":1797571,"sizeSlug":"full","linkDestination":"media"} --> <figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/02/3A-1.png"><img src="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/02/3A-1.png" alt="" class="wp-image-1797571" /></a></figure> <!-- /wp:image --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>The favorite: </strong>Despite being the substate's top seed, Webster City is actually the fifth highest-ranked team at BC Moore (behind Heelan, ADM, Sergeant Bluff-Luton, and Carroll). The most talented team in the group is probably <strong>Heelan</strong>, and we'll peg the Crusaders as the favorite to come out of this substate, but they're not without flaws. They've had some great highest this year, posting good wins over Western Christian, Council Bluffs Lincoln, and a split with Sergeant Bluff-Luton, but they also have a perplexing loss to LeMars, their first-round opponent, on the resume. Junior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1171695' first='Matthew' last='Noll'] (17.7, 8.2 rebounds) is the most dynamic player in the substate, a long, athletic wing who can score from all three levels in bunches and carry this group. [player_tooltip player_id='1288894' first='Carter' last='Kuehl'] (14.6, 42.1 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='1367436' first='Sam' last='Skinner'] (8.8, 38.5 3P%), a pair of veteran, senior guards, have provided some needed shooting to this team as well. Noll is the best player in the substate, and in what looks like a very balanced group of teams, the narrowest edge will go to Heelan because of him.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>The biggest threats: Sergeant Bluff-Luton</strong> has gone 9-4 since the holiday break, and as one of the best defensive teams in the class (48.5 points per game allowed), the Warriors will be tough to beat in postseason play. Coach Adam Vander Schaaf always has this group peaking at the right time, and that appears to be the case again this year. This is a senior-laden roster, with seniors comprising the top six scorers, led by Dylon Schaap (13.2) and [player_tooltip player_id='1167745' first='Tyler' last='Smith'] (11.8). The Warriors don't shoot it particularly well from deep, but they'll rely on a disciplined, strong defense to keep games tight and try to use their experience to win late. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>Webster City </strong>has rolled through their schedule, with the exception of a pair of losses to Clear Lake, behind a defense that ranks second in the class, allowing just 47.9 points a game. The Lynx have some quick guards on the perimeter who move their feet really well, and this group works well together on that end of the floor. [player_tooltip player_id='1367401' first='Jaime' last='Grossoehme'] (18.1, 40.0 3P%) leads a trio of double-figure scorers. A lefty sharpshooter who moves well without the ball in his hands and has improved as a creator, Grossoehme is the type of player who can drop 15 points in a quarter because of his elite shooting. The senior backcourt of [player_tooltip player_id='1167725' first='Ty' last='McKinney'] (13.7, 3.4 assists) and Jayce Neuroth (4.2, 3.4 assists) do a great job running the offense and getting others involved, while junior forward [player_tooltip player_id='2284843' first='Briar' last='Klaver'] (13.5, 8.5 rebounds) is a physical presence in the paint. This is a group that has won a ton of games and plays together really well. But they'll need to be wary of their opening round game, a rematch with a Gilbert team that they needed overtime to beat by 6 last month. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>The dark horses: ADM</strong> is 10-10 at the time of this writing, but the Tigers have six losses by single digits, including four by a single possession, so this is a team that was really close to being a top-2 seed in a substate instead of the #4 seed here. Junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1222528' first='Adam' last='Bryte'] (14.7, 47.9 3P%) is an elite 3-point shooter who can get scorching hot and carry his team for long stretches. [player_tooltip player_id='1240104' first='Vince' last='Benetti'] (10.3, 9.5 rebounds) is dominant on the glass, and the Tigers are able to put several other solid shooting threats alongside Bryte and Benetti, who each get a lot of defensive attention. They have a 28-point win over first-round opponent Denison-Schleswig on their resume.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>Carroll </strong>is playing good basketball down the stretch, going 5-2 in their last seven games. The Tigers have five solid scoring threats, led by junior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1476977' first='Evan' last='Hammer'] (14.2, 8.6 rebounds), an efficient interior option with the strength to power through contact and the soft hands and touch to finish efficiently. Bryce Berlau (10.8, 41.5 3P%) has been a breakout guard for this group, and [player_tooltip player_id='1738700' first='Tanner' last='Gotto'] (10.3) is a veteran presence who has played a ton of minutes for Carroll over the last few years. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Players to watch<br></span>2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1171695' first='Matthew' last='Noll'], Heelan<br>2023 [player_tooltip player_id='1288894' first='Carter' last='Kuehl'], Heelan<br>2023 Dylon Schaap, Sergeant Bluff-Luton<br>2023 [player_tooltip player_id='1167745' first='Tyler' last='Smith'], Sergeant Bluff-Luton<br>2023 [player_tooltip player_id='1367401' first='Jaime' last='Grossoehme'], Webster City<br>2023 [player_tooltip player_id='1167725' first='Ty' last='McKinney'], Webster City<br>2024 [player_tooltip player_id='2284843' first='Briar' last='Klaver'], Webster City<br>2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1222528' first='Adam' last='Bryte'], ADM<br>2023 [player_tooltip player_id='1240104' first='Vince' last='Benetti'], ADM<br>2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1476977' first='Evan' last='Hammer'], Carroll<br>2023 Bryce Berlau, Carroll<br>2023 [player_tooltip player_id='1367445' first='Carson' last='Seuntjens'], Denison-Schleswig<br>2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1376724' first='Luke' last='Wiebers'], Denison-Schleswig<br>2023 Alex Ruba, Gilbert</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph {"fontSize":"medium"} --> <p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>ADM vs. Heelan</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>This substate could go any number of directions, with six teams ranked within the top 24 at BC Moore. We like ADM to upset Webster City in the semifinals behind a big game from Bryte, while we're taking Heelan to win the rubber match against SBL in the other semifinal to set up this final. [player_tooltip player_id='1171695' first='Matthew' last='Noll'] proves to be too much as an all-around scorer and the Crusaders of <strong>Heelan</strong> advance to the state tournament for the first time since 2012.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph -->