Substate Preview: 1A-5

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/02/District-9.png"><img src="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/02/District-9.png" alt="" class="wp-image-1785824" /></a></figure>   District 9   The favorite: Top-seeded Baxter's lone loss this season came against a Dunkerton team that is favored to make it to the state tournament out of their own substate, and no other game on their schedule has been decided by single digits. The Bolts are winning games by an average of 29.7 points a game behind a quartet of double-figure scorers in seniors [player_tooltip player_id='1240107' first='Carson' last='Scroggins'] (19.4), Cody Damman (12.5), and Trice Clapper (11.2), and junior [player_tooltip player_id='2325277' first='Treyton' last='Travis'] (12.6). The backcourt of Damman and Travis averages nearly 10 assists a game, and fellow senior guard Cael Shepley (6.4) chips in another 4.4 a night, giving them a trio of talented playmakers to get the ball to the high-scoring Scroggins. They don't shoot it particularly well from the arc (29.8%), but are good on the offensive glass, force a ton of turnovers, and know their limitations and do a great job attacking the rim. As the district's top seed, they have a significantly easier road to the district final than the teams at the bottom of the bracket, giving them a major edge here.   The biggest threat: Like Baxter, Moravia enters postseason play with just one loss, theirs coming at the hands of a talented New London team. The Mohawks haven't lost since the holiday break, running off 13 straight wins heading into postseason play, and like Baxter, they're winning games by a massive margin (30.4 points a game). [player_tooltip player_id='1367453' first='Gage' last='Hanes'] (19.7) leads a trio of double-figure scorers, a versatile three-level scorer who can take over games in the blink of an eye. [player_tooltip player_id='1367459' first='Riley' last='Hawkins'] (14.3) is an experienced forward, while [player_tooltip player_id='2325457' first='Shane' last='Helmick'] (12.3, 8.9 rebounds) has provided a ton of help on the glass this season. A team that shares the wealth (18.3 assists a game), they look to get out and push the pace as often as possible, using their athleticism to their advantage. Playing in the Bluegrass Conference, they don't see much in the way of competition on a nightly basis, which could be a detriment here.   The dark horse: In talented guards [player_tooltip player_id='1765506' first='Brady' last='Boulton'] (15.2, 39.2 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='956886' first='Masin' last='Shearer'] (14.1, 38.2 3P%), Montezuma has a pair of players who can get scorching hot in a hurry and carry the Braves to three wins and a district title. Montezuma is a perennial power in 1A basketball, a community that loves the game and knows how to play the right way. Shearer is arguably the most dynamic player in the district, a small but shifty guard who can create his own shot, get to the rim, and knock down jumpers routinely. Gavin Strong (13.9) and Garrett Watts (13.2) provide some additional scoring punch, and while the Braves are small, they do rebound fairly well and have the speed to put constant pressure on opposing teams.   Players to watch 2023 [player_tooltip player_id='1240107' first='Carson' last='Scroggins'], Baxter 2023 Cody Damman, Baxter 2024 [player_tooltip player_id='2325277' first='Treyton' last='Travis'], Baxter 2023 Trice Clapper, Baxter 2023 [player_tooltip player_id='1367453' first='Gage' last='Hanes'], Moravia 2023 [player_tooltip player_id='1367459' first='Riley' last='Hawkins'], Moravia 2024 [player_tooltip player_id='2325457' first='Shane' last='Helmick'], Moravia 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765506' first='Brady' last='Boulton'], Montezuma 2023 [player_tooltip player_id='956886' first='Masin' last='Shearer'], Montezuma 2025 Isaac Bruns, Sigourney 2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1751217' first='Rayce' last='Snyder'], Wayne   <figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/02/District-10.png"><img src="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/02/District-10.png" alt="" class="wp-image-1785827" /></a></figure>   District 10   The favorite: Few teams in the class enter postseason play as hot as Madrid, who have won 15 straight games, with only three of those games decided by single digits. The Tigers are young (three sophomores among their top five scorers), but talented and filled with scoring threats. Sophomore wing [player_tooltip player_id='1174816' first='Toryn' last='Severson'] (20.3) is one of the best three-level scorers in the class, a versatile player who can create looks for himself or others, knock down shots off the catch, and contribute on the glass. Fellow sophomores [player_tooltip player_id='2397210' first='Brody' last='Buck'] (10.9, 3.1 assists) and [player_tooltip player_id='2398087' first='Fabian' last='Ortiz-Alaniz'] (9.8, 3.5 assists) provide additional scoring punch and ball-handling on the perimeter, and older brother [player_tooltip player_id='1155054' first='Kadyn' last='Severson'] (13.6, 4.2 assists), a senior who has been around the block a time or two, is the veteran leader that this group needs. Senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1587384' first='Jackson' last='Newell'] (11.4, 13.1 rebounds, 6.2 blocks) is the type of rim protector that teams in this district will really struggle to against, and if he's able to stay out of foul trouble, his presence in the paint makes this team deadly, allowing his guards to play aggressively and force turnovers, knowing they have a human eraser behind them. Madrid has played the toughest schedule of any of the contenders in this district, have a ton of scoring options, and a game-changing defender.   The biggest threat: In senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1167690' first='Jaixen' last='Frost'] (22.1, 7.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists), Mount Ayr may have the best player in the district. Frost, a talented 6-2 guard who can score from all three levels with remarkable efficiency (56-45-83 splits), is capable of taking over games at any moment, and will be a difficult player for any teams in this district to contain. Braydon Pierson (13.5, 41.2 3P%) has provided some additional scoring punch on the perimeter, a knockdown shooter who pairs well with Frost, who can get the defense to collapse and get Pierson open looks. The Raiders are hot, winning 11 straight games coming in, and get their first two games at home.   The dark horse: The district's #3 seed is Mormon Trail, a solid group with a trio of double-figure scorers in seniors Gavin Dixson (18.6, 9.7 rebounds) and Fulton Flesher (12.5), and junior Triton Gwinn (11.2). The Saints pound the glass on both ends of the floor (38.9 rebounds a game, 15.1 offensive) and share the ball well (18.3 assists), but they don't shoot it very well from the arc, which will make it difficult for them to make a big run here.   Players to watch 2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1174816' first='Toryn' last='Severson'], Madrid 2023 [player_tooltip player_id='1587384' first='Jackson' last='Newell'], Madrid 2023 [player_tooltip player_id='1155054' first='Kadyn' last='Severson'], Madrid 2023 [player_tooltip player_id='1167690' first='Jaixen' last='Frost'], Mount Ayr 2023 Braydon Pierson, Mount Ayr 2023 Gavin Dixson, Mormon Trail 2023 Fulton Flesher, Mormon Trail 2023 Owen Suntken, Melcher-Dallas 2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1476992' first='Lucas' last='Frohwein'], Colo-Nesco 2023 Luke Huntrods, Collins-Maxwell     SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION   Baxter vs. Madrid   Neither of these teams has ever made a boys state basketball tournament, so we would be making some history if this is the substate final. Madrid has a bevy of talented scoring threats, and a significant edge in strength of schedule, which could be a determining factor here. [player_tooltip player_id='1174816' first='Toryn' last='Severson'] has a big night, [player_tooltip player_id='1587384' first='Jackson' last='Newell'] makes it difficult for the Bolts to score in the paint, and Madrid punches their first ticket ever to the state tournament.