Substate Preview: 1A-1

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/01/Screen-Shot-2023-02-06-at-6.47.40-PM.png"><img src="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/01/Screen-Shot-2023-02-06-at-6.47.40-PM.png" alt="" class="wp-image-1785549" /></a></figure>   District 1   The favorite: Remsen, St. Mary's has made six consecutive trips to the state tournament, and after earning the top seed in the district, a seventh straight trip is within reach. The Hawks once again have have excellent defensively, allowing just 43.7 points a game, and they have a balanced offensive attack that sees five players averaging at least 8.6 points a game. [player_tooltip player_id='1167735' first='Jaxon' last='Bunkers'] (15.8, 5.2 assists) leads the team in scoring and assists and is a senior leader who has been a key piece for three straight state tournament teams, while sophomore forward [player_tooltip player_id='1759937' first='Collin' last='Homan'] (14.4, 8.2 rebounds) has been a dominant force in the paint, shooting 62% from the floor. This year's iteration of the Hawks don't shoot it as well from the arc (28.1%) as previous teams have, but they play strong, disciplined defense, rebound well, and share the ball. This is a veteran team that knows how to win big games. They own a season sweep of South O'Brien and wins over HMS and Kingsley-Pierson.   The biggest threat: Despite being the #3 seed in the district and facing a trip to Kingsley-Pierson in the district semifinals, South O'Brien is the biggest threat to St. Mary's in the district. The Wolverines are 13-6 (at the time of this writing), and those six losses have come to St. Mary's (twice), Gehlen Catholic (the top seed in District 2), and two good 2A schools - West Sioux (twice) and Unity Christian. The Wolverines just played St. Mary's to a seven-point game and have the balanced offensive attack and solid 2-3 defense that could cause problems in a third meeting. Boston Riedemann (11.7) leads the team in scoring, but Willie Conley (11.6) and David Bottjen (11.0) are right behind him, giving them a trio of solid scoring threats. It's always difficult to beat a team three times in a season, and these teams are very familiar with one another. The major difference in conferences (War Eagle for South O'Brien versus the Western Valley for Kingsley-Pierson) gives the Wolverines an edge here.   The dark horse(s): Kingsley-Pierson is coming into postseason play hot, winners of 10 straight games, using a suffocating defense to control games, allowing just 38.8 points a game, fourth in the class. The Panthers are led by junior guard Beau Goodwin (12.7) and senior Boston Doeschot (10.8), and they have a defense that can force a ton of turnovers and take advantage of loose ball-handling teams. They'll get the district semifinal game against (likely) South O'Brien at home, which will be beneficial. The other team to watch in this district is Hartley-Melvin-Sanborn. The Hawks have a pair of Division 1 athletes on their side in future football players [player_tooltip player_id='1167717' first='Lance' last='Berends'] (21.3, 12.5 rebounds) and [player_tooltip player_id='1367440' first='Kooper' last='Ebel'] (18.8, 9.9 rebounds), who are headed to Northern Iowa and Iowa State, respectively. Both are fantastic athletes with strength, physicality, and experience, and both are difficult matchups at this level. HMS played St. Mary's to a 10-point game last month and is capable of giving the Hawks a handful in the semifinals.   Players to watch 2023 [player_tooltip player_id='1167735' first='Jaxon' last='Bunkers'], Remsen, St. Mary's 2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1759937' first='Collin' last='Homan'], Remsen, St. Mary's 2023 [player_tooltip player_id='1469786' first='Cael' last='Ortmann'], Remsen, St. Mary's 2023 Boston Riedemann, South O'Brien 2024 Willie Conley, South O'Brien 2024 David Bottjen, South O'Brien 2024 Beau Goodwin, Kingsley-Pierson 2023 Boston Doeschot, Kingsley-Pierson 2023 [player_tooltip player_id='1167717' first='Lance' last='Berends'], Hartley-Melvin-Sanborn 2023 [player_tooltip player_id='1367440' first='Kooper' last='Ebel'], Hartley-Melvin-Sanborn 2023 Braden Sonksen, Alta-Aurelia 2023 Tyce Gunderson, Harris-Lake Park 2024 Laytin Koch, Akron-Westfield 2023 [player_tooltip player_id='1367461' first='Caleb' last='Burns'], River Valley 2023 Nolan Porter, Siouxland Christian     <figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/02/Screen-Shot-2023-02-06-at-6.53.04-PM.png"><img src="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/02/Screen-Shot-2023-02-06-at-6.53.04-PM.png" alt="" class="wp-image-1785550" /></a></figure>   District 2   The favorite: Gehlen Catholic earned the top seed in the district, and should, in theory, have an easier path to the district final than the contenders on the bottom of the bracket. The Jays have lost four games, but three of those have come to good 2A teams (Unity Christian, Western Christian, West Sioux), and the other came against Remsen, St. Mary's, the top-seeded team in District 1. Senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='956881' first='Keaten' last='Bonderson'] (21.5) is one of the most dynamic players in the class, a quick guard who can break down a defense and get to the bucket as well as torch teams from the arc. Keaton Logan (9.3, 4.9 assists) has allowed Bonderson to move off the ball more this season, allowing him to focus more on scoring and the Jays have taken off as a result. Drake DeRocher (11.7, 39.8 3P%) gives them some needed perimster shooting. This is a group that shares the ball well (16.1 assists a game) and plays solid defense. In Bonderson, they have an elite player, and they have a lot of solid pieces around him.   The biggest threat: The highest-ranked team in BCMoore's rankings in the district is actually Newell-Fonda, the team seeded third. The Mustangs are an explosive offensive team, averaging 80.2 points a game (third in the class) behind dynamic senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1167701' first='Carter' last='Sievers'] (27.7), who is having a sensational year as an efficient three-level scorer. Mason Dicks (15.2, 4.8 assists) has been really good as a lead guard, and the Mustangs play an up-tempo, pressing style that forces a ton of turnovers (14.5 steals a game). They were given the #3 seed in part because of a head-to-head loss to GTRA a week ago, but that loss was by just two points and came in a game in which they shot 10 points worse than their season averages from the floor.   The dark horse(s): GTRA just beat Newell-Fonda last week and will get the rematch at home again in the district semifinals, which gives them an edge. The Titans have four double-figure scorers in [player_tooltip player_id='1367443' first='Drew' last='Schnell'] (15.9), Eric Heinrichs (15.2), Kory Hough (11.5), and [player_tooltip player_id='1367441' first='Max' last='Hough'] (10.5), all seniors. [player_tooltip player_id='1367441' first='Max' last='Hough'] is one of the top lead guards in the area, a facilitator who is dishing out 7.9 assists a game, and this group rarely turns it over, averaging fewer than nine turnovers a game. Their variety of scoring threats makes them difficult to defend, they protect the ball, and their senior-laden, which makes them dangerous. George-Little Rock may still be a year away from making real noise, with four juniors leading the team in scoring, but the Mustangs play in the always tough Siouxland Conference, which will prepare them well for the competition they'll see here. Forward [player_tooltip player_id='1376715' first='Drew' last='Denekas'] (13.2, 10.5 rebounds) is a handful on the inside, and Isaiah Johnson (7.3, 3.7 assists, 42.9 3P%) is a solid lead guard who can protect the ball and knock down shots.   Players to watch 2023 [player_tooltip player_id='956881' first='Keaten' last='Bonderson'], Gehlen Catholic 2023 Drake DeRocher, Gehlen Catholic 2023 Keaton Logan, Gehlen Catholic 2023 [player_tooltip player_id='1167701' first='Carter' last='Sievers'], Newell-Fonda 2023 Mason Dicks, Newell-Fonda 2023 [player_tooltip player_id='1367443' first='Drew' last='Schnell'], GTRA 2023 Eric Heinrichs, GTRA 2023 [player_tooltip player_id='1367441' first='Max' last='Hough'], GTRA 2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1376715' first='Drew' last='Denekas'], George-Little Rock 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765534' first='Brayson' last='Mulder'], MMCRU 2024 Dustin Hoksbergen, Trinity Christian 2025 Gage Semple, Lawton-Bronson     SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION   Remsen, St. Mary's vs. Newell-Fonda   We'll call for the slight upset (based on seeds at least) and take Newell-Fonda to emerge out of District 2 and face off with St. Mary's in the substate final. If this game were to emerge, it would be an interesting contrast in styles, with Newell-Fonda wanting to push the pace and St. Mary's preferring to use their smothering defense to control a halfcourt game. The explosiveness of [player_tooltip player_id='1167701' first='Carter' last='Sievers'] proves to be too much here, and Newell-Fonda punches their first state tournament ticket since 2014, stopping the Hawks' bid for seven straight one game short.