Substate Preview: 3A-1

[player_tooltip player_id="682284" first="Karter" last="Petzenhauser"] (red) The favorite: Struggling to pick a favorite is probably going to be a common theme throughout the 3A substate previews, as the class has been as unpredictable as ever this year. We’ll give the nod…

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[player_tooltip player_id="682284" first="Karter" last="Petzenhauser"] (red)

The favorite: Struggling to pick a favorite is probably going to be a common theme throughout the 3A substate previews, as the class has been as unpredictable as ever this year. We’ll give the nod in this substate to Spencer, who earned the top seed in the group behind a potent offense that is averaging 65.2 points a game. Two of their three losses have come to 2A #1 Western Christian, and the other came to a 4A Sioux City East team that has spent some time ranked this year. The Tigers are led by senior wing Karter Petzenhauser Karter Petzenhauser 6'4" | SG Spencer | 2022 State IA (19.4), a dynamic three-level scorer who is posting 57-45-73 shooting splits. He’s a 6-2 wing with physicality who can get to the rim for finishes and he’s an excellent shooter as well. Junior wing Owen Olson (11.7) is knocking down 50% of his 3-point attempts, and senior forward Evan Schmidt Evan Schmidt 6'5" Spencer | 2022 IA (11.5, 7.5 rebounds) has provided some needed size and rebounding in the paint. This substate looks to be pretty open, but we’ll go with the top-seeded team as the favorite.

The biggest threats: Humboldt was one of the last remaining undefeated teams in the class, starting off 12-0 before dropping a game to Clear Lake. The Wildcats have been strong on both ends, putting up 65.3 points a game and allowing 51.9, but the level of competition in the North Central is a question for this group. Will Orness Will Orness 6'1" | SG Humboldt | 2023 State IA (14.2) and Caden Matson (12.5) are the team’s top scorers, but four others average between 7.5 and 8.4 points a game, giving them six viable scoring options. Orness is a quality three-level scorer, while Matson leads the team in rebounding and assists.

LeMars plays in the Missouri River Conference against a bunch of 4A schools, and they’ve been competitive in that league. The Bulldogs have a big-time scorer in senior wing Caleb Dreckman Caleb Dreckman 6'2" | SG LeMars | 2022 State IA (20.7), a slashing guard who gets to the rim and also leads the team in assists, while Konnor Calhoun Konnor Calhoun 6'6" | C LeMars | 2022 State IA (9.4, 6.2 rebounds) has been an efficient scorer and rim protector. The question for LeMars will be whether or not they have enough scoring around Dreckman to win three games and get to the state tournament.

The dark horses: Coach Adam Vander Schaaf always has Sergeant Bluff-Luton peaking towards the end of the year, and this year is no exception, as they’ve won five of seven down the stretch, with the losses coming to 4A Sioux City East and a one-point loss to Lewis Central. The young Warriors don’t have a single senior on the roster and are led by junior guard Tyler Smith Tyler Smith 5'10" | SG Sergeant Bluff-Luton | 2023 State IA (17.1) and forward Scott Kroll (8.3, 6.5 rebounds). The Warriors are always tough, physical, athletic, and defensive-minded, and they’ll be a tough out in this substate.

Another team that has started to play some good ball down the stretch is Storm Lake, who have won six of their last nine games. The Tornadoes have three double-figure scorers in seniors Sam Slight Sam Slight 6'6" | SF Storm Lake | 2022 State IA (13.8), Luth Dak Luth Dak 6'8" | PF Storm Lake | 2022 State IA (12.8) and Sam Dvergsten Sam Dvergsten 5'10" | SG Storm Lake | 2022 State IA (11.5), and the Slight-Dvergsten combo is one of the better shooting tandems in the substate. Dak and Austin Gaffney Austin Gaffney 6'7" | C Storm Lake | 2022 State IA (7.6, 1.7 blocks) combine to block over four shots a game, giving them some rim protection, and this is a veteran team, with the top 10 scorers all seniors.

SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION

Spencer vs. Sergeant Bluff-Luton

Spencer will get pushed at the top of the bracket by the winner of the Storm Lake/MOC-Floyd Valley game but should make their way to the substate final, where we have them facing an SB-L team that is always peaking at this time of year. While the Warriors and Vander Schaaf will be formidable, Spencer has the best player on the floor and are the more experienced team, and they take a tight, low-scoring final and make their way to the state tournament for the first time in 18 years.