Sectional Draw: 4A South Breakdown
The Sectional Draw was last night and we are beginning our look and preparation for the upcoming week of elimination games. Today, we have our Sectional-by-Sectional Breakdown in 4A North.
Sectional 9: Richmond
Breakdown: Sectional 9 is a really balanced field with no real leader but John Harrell does project Connersville to win by 37.8%. The biggest beneficiary of the draw was probably Pendleton Heights. They miss Connersville and get a matchup with Richmond in the second round if they can make it past New Palestine. The sleeper to watch out for is Richmond who has two stud guards that can put up a ton of points against a host of schools that aren’t exactly high scoring teams. They have a legit shot as does pretty much every team. This is the kind of Sectional that will provide a lot “upsets” and surprises.
Best First Round Matchup: Pendleton Heights vs. New Palestine
Prediction: Connersville
Sleeper: Richmond
Sectional 10: Warren Central
Breakdown: Warren Central is by far the best team in the state with maybe the exception of Riley but they have been tested, 7-0 against schools in this Sectional. They also got a great draw and will only have to face Tech and North Central who are clearly the bottom two teams. Cathedral is the next strongest competition but they will have to take the toughest path as they get the best opening round game in the state with Lawrence North and then would take on Lawrence Central. The sleeper is Lawrence Central who got the bye game and have already beaten Lawrence North this year. They have enough talent to upset the balance.
Best First Round Matchup: Lawrence North vs. Cathedral
Prediction: Warren Central
Sleeper: Lawrence Central
Sectional 11: Ben Davis
Breakdown: Outside of the top three, it would be really hard to see Decatur Central, Perry, or Southport really make a legit run. Looking at the top three, Ben Davis getting the bye was pretty good but Indianapolis Pike drawing Perry first and then Decatur was huge. They should have a great shot to get to the final game and match up, once again, with Ben Davis. Look for Roncalli as the sleeper. They get an easier first game against Southport, not a layup but would then have to face Ben Davis before getting to Saturday. It looks like Ben Davis is the favorite here but Pike has had their numbered in years past and Roncalli is talented enough to do some serious damage.
Best First Round Matchup: Southport vs. Roncalli
Prediction: Ben Davis
Sleeper: Indianapolis Roncalli
Sectional 12: Terre Haute South
Breakdown: This Sectional is as top heavy as you will find, especially in 4A. Brownsburg is the favorite per John Harrell with 71.6% chance of winning. They got a great draw, moving to the bottom half and getting a bye game. The second best chance is South who also got the bye game and get the slightly tougher path with Plainfield coming. Plainfield is the sleeper here because of Bizeau inside and their play of late has been much better. They are capable of getting through South but Brownsburg is a team they already lost to twice and that will be a much more difficult game. Fairly obvious pick here but we laid out some of the other things of note.
Best First Round Matchup: Terre Haute North vs. Mooresville
Prediction: Brownsburg
Sleeper: Plainfield
Sectional 13: Greenwood
Breakdown: This is a pretty straight forward pick with Center Grove. John Harrell predicts a 43.1% chance for the Trojans but Center Grove is also 5-0 against these teams including two double-digit wins over Greenwood and two double-digit wins over Franklin Community, the next two most likely teams to make it to Regionals. Martinsville has had a solid year but the first round draw puts them in a bad spot early. Look for Franklin Community to have an easier path and likely get their third shot at taking down Center Grove but that would be a tall task to ask from them.
Best First Round Matchup: Center Grove vs. Martinsville
Prediction: Center Grove
Sleeper: Franklin Community
Sectional 14: Columbus East
Breakdown: This is a well balanced Sectional with the two favorites in Shelbyville and Bloomington South on opposite sides and getting easier first round matchups before tougher semifinal games. Bloomington South is the predicted winner by John Harrell with 64.5% chance of victory. Their path is pretty easy while Shelbyville has a little bit tougher of a road. Look for Shelbyville to be there at the end, though. They are really skilled on offense and have enough weapons to withstand attacks. That would be a very entertaining Championship game with Bloomington South. Beyond those two, Columbus East has the sleeper title as they get the first bye game and Shelbyville can be up and down a bit. Hard to pick a real sleeper here but East has the best shot.
Best First Round Matchup: Columbus North vs. Shelbyville
Prediction: Bloomington South
Sleeper: Columbus East
Sectional 15: Seymour
Breakdown: New Albany got good and bad news on Sunday. This draw will hurt Romeo Langford’s chances at catching the All-Time Scoring title but gives the team a decided advantage to get through a really difficult Sectional. Avoiding Jeffersonville, Bedford, and Floyd Central until one of them gets to the Championship game is massive. It makes it even easier and Harrell gives them a 67.7% chance to get through. However, Floyd Central is the one team that has beat them this year and are their best rival lately with Jeffersonville being right there. Jeff gets the much needed bye game and could be well rested before getting the winner of Bedford and Floyd. It is really a toss up at this point between the two but with just one easy game before the Championship game, it is hard to pick against New Albany.
Best First Round Matchup: Floyd Central vs. Bedford North Lawrence
Prediction: New Albany
Sleeper: Jeffersonville
Sectional 16: Evansville North
Breakdown: Castle isn’t as good as they were a year ago but they are still pretty talented and getting the bye game will prove huge as Harrison will have to take on a good Jasper team before meeting them in the Semifinals. Castle is a 47.3% favorite for Harrell and it is pretty light. However, look for Evansville Reitz to make some damage on the bottom half. They got the bye game and have been playing better as of late. They are 2-3 against Sectional opponents with wins over Central and North, the two teams they could face before the Sectional Finals. That will setup a chance for them to really get their shot at a Sectional Championship.
Best First Round Matchup: Evansville Harrison vs. Jasper
Prediction: Castle
Sleeper: Evansville Reitz