4A Regional: Preview, Predictions, and Notes

The first week of the State Playoffs are complete and we are looking ahead to this Saturday and the day long fight that is Regionals. Today, we take a look at the matchups in the 4A Regionals in preparation for this weekend’s games. HOST: Michigan City Game 1: Northridge vs. Culver Academies Game 2: Valparaiso vs. Merrillville Regional Notes: This isn’t as strong as it could have been if teams like Munster and Chesterton made it through but it makes for an intriguing day of games. Culver Academies comes in as the likely favorite at 19-4 and having won 15 straight games. They had to battle to get past South Bend Adams to do it so the possibility remains that they could be upset in the right conditions. However, Northridge is the team with the best record and has a ton of firepower that they could give them a run for their money. Valparaiso and Merrillville are the two surprise teams here so getting to Saturday night would be huge for either team. Biggest Surprise To Get Here: Merrillville. They are just 12-12 and are riding a 4-game winning streak. Before Sectionals started, they were just 8-12 and got a huge win over Penn before heading into the postseason. Merrillville’s biggest win to that point was South Bend Riley? Maybe? So, beating a very, very good Munster team and a tricky Lake Central program was something they really hadn’t done before. My Prediction: The pick here is Culver Academies but just barely. Northridge is a tough matchup. Built on a ton of guards that all can shoot, a high-powered offense, and a big that can matchup well against [player_tooltip player_id="567876" first="Nick" last="Hittle"] in the post, not sure this is anything more than a coin flip. Now, Culver could win big but if Northridge gets hot, could be a long night. Not sure who of Valparaiso or Merrillville will win but tend to lean towards Valpo because of Barak Coolman and his experience. But, of the three teams, Northridge probably gives more issues for Culver. HOST: Logansport Game 1: Marion vs. Fort Wayne Snider Game 2: Carmel vs. New Haven Regional Notes: This Regional is typically one of the more packed Regionals in the state and this year is a lot different. Carmel has proven they can compete with anyone and just got through a very difficult Sectional. Snider the same. New Haven and Marion, however, are two teams that are really going to have to take things up a notch. Marion got lucky with the draw and then having Harrison take out Lafayette Jeff for them. The path was much, much easier and they got hot at the right time even missing [player_tooltip player_id="874110" first="Jalen" last="Blackmon"]. New Haven got to the championship game like we thought but instead of Homestead coming out alive, it was New Haven. Homestead just didn’t have that next level this year as was evidenced by some of their close results that were losses. Carmel and Snider sit as the most likely picks here on Monday. Biggest Surprise To Get Here: The biggest surprise was Marion. Their path just made it attainable but even still, beating McCutcheon in an essential home game, taking down Logansport, and then knocking off Harrison was still one of the ones that nobody saw coming. They were 11-11 before Sectionals started in a Sectional that had a Top 5 team in Lafayette Jeff and a Top 20ish team in Harrison. Marion survived. My Predictions: The pick here is Carmel. Snider is a great team and they should get past Marion. Snider has just had this ability to get these tough wins when they were dead in the water. Marion shouldn’t be so good they can’t continue that streak. Carmel shouldn’t have any issues with New Haven. That matchup actually favors them a ton with not a lot of real size and a team that is willing to play uptempo that isn’t used to their defensive principles. Carmel and Snider should be a great game, though. Good matchup for both teams but Snider does make too many mistakes for Carmel not to take advantage. If Snider can get [player_tooltip player_id="874111" first="Michael" last="Eley"] going and hit some deep shots late in the game, they have a chance. HOST: Southport Game 1: New Palestine vs. Lawrence North Game 2: Brownsburg vs. Ind. Pike Regional Notes: This Regional at Southport is one that hasn’t been particularly stellar in recent years. Sectional 10 builds it up so much that it is hard to look at the Regional as a more difficult path for whoever comes out of there. However, Indianapolis Pike and Brownsburg look like two really solid teams and will battle in the first round. Brownsburg beat Pike, 61-55 during the regular season. Brownsburg doesn’t blow teams away but they seem to win a ton of them. This should be just as close, if not closer. New Palestine has been a team that has gotten to the point in the season where we thought they would be but the path there has been different. They have really struggled in a year where we thought they would dominate. They did get through beating Mt. Vernon and Muncie Central but now has to play Lawrence North and LN is looking great so far. Biggest Surprise To Get Here: New Palestine is the more of a surprise here. Not that they shouldn’t be here, they should, but they hadn’t really shown anything up until this point that would make you think this is a lock. Richmond got better as the season went on, Mt. Vernon was solid. Even Greenfield-Central was a sneaky pick to win the Sectional. So, good to see them get through but they are going to need everything on their side to pull this next one off. My Predictions: The pick here is Lawrence North. Not sure anyone would be surprised by this but they have been beat this year so it is possible. At 25-2, New Palestine shouldn’t be too difficult and they beat Pike and Brownsburg in the regular season already. Pike by 28 points and Brownsburg by 14 points. I do like Brownsburg to meet them in the Championship game but not sure Brownsburg has the depth that it would take to knock Lawrence North off. LN relies a lot of easy buckets at the other end so you can’t miss shots and give up fast breaks and you have to have really secure ball handlers. Not sure any team in this Sectional has depth and those traits. Not sure anyone in the state does at the level needed. HOST: Seymour Game 1: Greenwood vs. Evansville Reitz Game 2: Floyd Central vs. Bloomington South Regional Notes: This Regional is going to be the best and most competitive in the state. Evansville Reitz, Floyd Central, and Bloomington South all have a ton of talent and are considered among the Top 15 teams in the state. Bloomington South is undefeated this year at 26-0 and has proven that they can hang with anyone. Floyd Central finally gets through to win a Sectional Championship for the first time since 1989. Floyd can hang but they already lost to Bloomington South, albeit in overtime by 1 point. Evansville Reitz is a team that has an enormous amount of talent but for the last two years they really haven’t put it together. This opening game against Greenwood is a trap game for them. Team they will overlook and if you can hold [player_tooltip player_id="529565" first="Khristian" last="Lander"] to under 20 points, Greenwood could make this a game. Biggest Surprise To Get Here: The biggest surprise here is Greenwood. Talented team and had a great year over expectations but Franklin Central was the clear favorite and Center Grove was still the more talented team if they could just put it together, they actually did in their first game of the tournament. Outside of Marion and Merrillville, this was the more surprising winner. The thought, though, was they would be playing Franklin Central and not Center Grove. Their draw gave them an easy road to the Championship game and when Center Grove won, that opened things up for them. My Predictions: The pick here is Bloomington South. Not an easy Regional at all because you could play Floyd Central and Evansville Reitz in back-to-back games and that won’t be easy in the same day. Floyd has a legit chance to win but either way, the thing to watch here is Bloomington South’s depth. They don’t have much and they don’t look to use many guys. Playing two games in one day won’t be easy especially if the first game of the day is really close which one would expect given their first meeting.