Sectional Draw: Class 4A North Breakdown
The Sectional Draw was last night and we are beginning our look and preparation for the upcoming week of elimination games. Today, we have our Sectional-by-Sectional Breakdown in 4A North.
Sectional 1: Lake Central
Breakdown: This is a very balanced Sectional with Munster being the favorite from John Harrell at 29.8% chance to win the Sectional. East Chicago Central getting the bye game gives them a big boost as they have only won 9 game this season. Look for someone from the bottom half of the bracket to have the tougher path but more likely winning path because that is where the majority of the talent is coming from. Crown Point could sneak with having wins over Lake Central and East Chicago and only a one-point loss to Munster.
Best First Round Matchup: Crown Point vs. Lake Central
Prediction: Munster
Sleeper: Crown Point
Sectional 2: Chesterton
Breakdown: While John Harrell predicts Chesterton as 41.3% favorite, it seems much closer than that. Valparaiso and Merrillville and capable of winning enough games to cause problems and you could easily make a case that Valparaiso is better suited to get through. However, Valparaiso gets a tough first round matchup and Merrillville gets the bye game. Look for Michigan City to be the sleeper team as they have been the most competitive team against the top three in this Sectional. While young, they have a style that can match.
Best First Round Matchup: Valparaiso vs. Portage
Prediction: Chesterton
Sleeper: Michigan City
Sectional 3: Mishawaka
Breakdown: John Harrell is predicting South Bend Riley as an 82.2% favorite and for good reason. They haven’t lost all year. Their draw is even helped by getting a bye game. However, they will get either Penn or Mishawka and they are good enough to cause some problems. The sleeper to watch on the other side of the bracket is South Bend Adams who gets to face the bottom two teams of the Sectional before waiting to see if Riley gets upset again this year. Don’t bet on it but something to watch.
Best First Round Matchup: Mishawaka vs. Penn
Prediction: South Bend Riley
Sleeper: South Bend Adams
Sectional 4: Elkhart Central
Breakdown: This is another very balanced Sectional with everyone winning between 7 and 12 games this year. No good, no bad teams. However, I think you have Warsaw who is clearly not as good as they have been in the past. John Harrell predicts Northridge to with at 26.2% and you would have to think a lot of that comes with a bye game. Warsaw is better suited though to win the Sectional as they are 5-1 against those opponents including a 58-49 win over Northridge. Look for Plymouth as the sleeper because they have had a solidly challenging schedule and have a little bit of an easier path than Warsaw/Northridge.
Best First Round Matchup: Plymouth vs. Elkhart Memorial
Prediction: Warsaw
Sleeper: Plymouth
Sectional 5: East Noble
Breakdown: A lot of big 4A teams drew luck on Saturday and one of the biggest was Fort Wayne North. They haven’t been as crisp as they need to be but they lucked out with not only getting the bye game but also avoiding Fort Wayne Carroll until Saturday. With that being said, Carroll and East Noble, one of them is going to be there and neither would be an easy game. North is being predicted as a 50.3% favorite. Our sleeper pick is East Noble. They aren’t that sexy name but they have a 19-1 record with a mediocre schedule relative to other teams in this Sectional. If they are better than most believe, then they could get by a middle of the road Dwenger team and past Carroll who is really solid.
Best First Round Matchup: Fort Wayne Dwenger vs. East Noble
Prediction: Fort Wayne North
Sleeper: East Noble
Sectional 6: Huntington North
Breakdown: Huntington North got a big draw with the bye game and it gives them a 28.5% chance of winning this Sectional per John Harrell. With that, though, they have to take on a likely Fort Wayne Wayne which won’t be easy but they matchup physically really well. On the other side, Homestead has a good path with a young Columbia City team. However, look for Fort Wayne South to make some noise as they have done really well this year against Sectional opponents going 2-2 with a win over Wayne and one of the losses was to Homestead by 1 in overtime. If you are taking a good bet, look for South to surprise.
Best First Round Matchup: Homestead vs. Columbia City
Prediction: Huntington North
Sleeper: Fort Wayne South
Sectional 7: Lafayette Jeff
Breakdown: This is one of, if not, the toughest Sectional in the state in terms of balance of talent at the highest level. There are no easy paths even for Harrison and McCutcheon who got bye games. McCutcheon benefits the most getting the bye and avoiding Zionsville until the end. However, look for Lafayette Jeff as a sleeper with their size, toughness, and transition ability, it is hard to matchup with them if they have it all working. Jeff is 3-1 against Sectional opponents with their only loss being to McCutcheon by 10. Zionsville is the favorite by Harrell with 47.3% which is a little high as any team in this Sectional is capable of pulling an upset.
Best First Round Matchup: Zionsville vs. Logansport
Prediction: Zionsville
Sleeper: Lafayette Jeff
Sectional 8: Noblesville
Breakdown: This is a very odd Sectional draw as Noblesville, Anderson, and Fishers on one side provide one of them a balanced shot of any of them making it to Saturday. Of that group, look for Fishers as the team with the most talent and best suited with the bye to do it. The real battle is on the south side of the bracket as Hamilton Southeastern got the much needed bye game to spend the next two weeks trying to game plan against Carmel who will have to face Westfield first. Not really worried about that first matchup for Carmel and when they face HSE on Friday, that is the defacto Sectional Championship. This is a huge advantage for HSE but they have to actually beat Carmel for this to matter. They have struggled to do that. Prior to HSE beating Carmel this regular season, they had lost the last 6 times, three of them coming in Sectionals.
Best First Round Matchup: Noblesville vs. Anderson
Prediction: Carmel
Sleeper: Fishers