Sectional Draw: 3A South Breakdown
The Sectional Draw was last night and we are beginning our look and preparation for the upcoming week of elimination games. Today, we have our Sectional-by-Sectional Breakdown in 3A South.
Sectional 25: Lebanon
Breakdown: Sectional 25 is setup for Southmont to go quite a ways. They get the bye game and they see Greencastle have a much tougher path. Look for Crawfordsville be a team to sneak through with an easy opening game and then a Greencastle team they know well. Greencastle is the favorite at 32.2% but Southmont is right there with 29.7%. Southmont’s draw we believe gives them the advantage heading in but there are three or four teams that could make some surprises including Lebanon and Crawfordsville so don’t be shocked if something wacky happens here.
Best First Round Matchup: North Montgomery vs. Lebanon
Prediction: Southmont
Sleeper: Crawfordsville
Sectional 26: Northview
Breakdown: At Northview, this is a little down rather than in years past but look for Edgewood to be the team to beat. John Harrell is predicting them to win this Sectional at 72.4%. They got the tougher draw as they will get Brown County early but then face up against the Second best team in South Vermillion. They are the sleeper pick here as they have the bye game and nobody on the opposite side really threatens the way an Edgewood team would. The top half of the bracket looks like it will be the side where the Championship would go down.
Best First Round Matchup: Northview vs. Owen Valley
Prediction: Edgewood
Sleeper: South Vermillion
Sectional 27: Guerin Catholic
Breakdown: This Sectional is the toughest in the State in 3A. With Brebeuf, Attucks, Ritter, Broad Ripple, and Guerin Catholic, that is five teams with double digit wins. Chatard isn’t a push over either. Brebeuf and Attucks getting matched up in the first round is difficult but will allow one of Guerin or Ritter to get to Saturday fairly easily. Ritter is actually predicted to win this Sectional by John Harrell by 32.8%. Attucks and Brebeuf are right behind but one would think those two are really the better teams during the season should be the favorite even though their road is tougher. Guerin Catholic is the sleeper here merely because they are only given 10.5% chance but have Chatard and then Ritter but still that is the easier path.
Best First Round Matchup: Brebeuf Jesuit vs. Crispus Attucks
Prediction: Crispus Attucks
Sleeper: Guerin Catholic
Sectional 28: Beech Grove
Breakdown: In this draw, you saw Tri-West be given the gauntlet of Indian Creek, Danville, and the either Beech Grove or Indianapolis Manual. Manual is given a dream scenario here only getting one of Tri-West, Danville, or Indian Creek. However, Beech Grove has played spoiler all season long and they are looking like the team to do it against based on their draw. This is going to be highly competitive and you could go any number of ways but Danville looks to be in a good spot with a bye game and the ability to game plan for Tri-West for a while now. John Harrell has Manual, Danville, and Beech Grove predicted to win between 34.6 and 22.9% chance. Tri-West was only given a 12.3% chance and that seems very low for a team that is 17-3 this season.
Best First Round Matchup: Tri-West vs. Indian Creek
Prediction: Danville
Sleeper: Beech Grove
Sectional 29: Greensburg
Breakdown: Greensburg is setup well at home as they got a big bye game and will have rivals Rushville or Batesville coming in the semifinals. On the bottom half of the bracket, look for Lawrenceburg to have a good shot to make it to Saturday. Greensburg is given a 53.7% chance to make it through with Batesville just behind. While Madison has beaten Lawrenceburg this year, Lawrenceburg looks like they have been up and down and has won against Batesville this season. They have the capability to be good and could surprise some.
Best First Round Matchup: Rushville vs. Batesville
Prediction: Greensburg
Sleeper: Lawrenceburg
Sectional 30: North Harrison
Breakdown: Silver Creek seems to be the beneficiary of the draw here avoiding the trio of Salem, Brownstown Central, and North Harrison. Neither Scottsburg or Corydon will really scare Silver Creek who is 6-0 against teams in this Sectional with only Brownstown Central keeping it within four points. No one else was better than 9. You have a toss up match between Brownstown and Salem with Brownstown Central being more of the perennial favorite. North Harrison has had a solid year and could be in play on the bottom half of the bracket. It is a lot of things up in the air but Harrell has Silver Creek predicted to win at 69.8% and nobody else with more that 12% chance.
Best First Round Matchup: Brownstown Central vs. Salem
Prediction: Silver Creek
Sleeper: Salem
Sectional 31: Southridge
Breakdown: At Southridge, there is a fantastic opening round game between Princeton and Vincennes Lincoln which will determine the defect Sectional Championship. Harrell has Princeton predicted the winner at 35.1%, Vincennes at 22.2%, and Sullivan at 21.2%. However, Sullivan does have a much easier path to the Championship game and they will get a fairly difficult path themselves with Pike Central and Southridge there waiting. Then, you know, the Princeton or Vincennes winner. Sullivan is the sleeper, though, as they get the easier path and will have a shot on Saturday.
Best First Round Matchup: Princeton vs. Vincennes Lincoln
Prediction: Princeton
Sleeper: Sullivan
Sectional 32: Boonville
Breakdown: Sectional 32 has been Bosse’s for awhile now and that isn’t going to change this year. They are predicted to win with a 71.1% chance with only Memorial, 14.4%, and Heritage Hills, 11.3% being the others with any significant shot. Bosse got a dream draw on the south side of the bracket paired up with Boonville followed by Mt. Vernon. Heritage Hills and Memorial will battle it out in the first round before taking on Gibson Southern who has beaten Heritage Hills but not Memorial. Memorial and Heritage Hills played once this year with Memorial getting a 2-point win.
Best First Round Matchup: Heritage Hills vs. Evansville Memorial
Prediction: Evansville Bosse
Sleeper: Heritage Hills