10 Things to Remember When Making your NCAA Tournament picks
I get it, nobody wants to actually put in valuable time filling out a bracket only to see it go down the pooper after Day One. I got you covered. Here are some simple life hacks to keep your March Madness from turning into March Sadness.
1 – No. 1s are Andy’s good
Upsets are fun, but don’t pick one here. Will a No.16 ever beat a No. 1? Yes. Will it happen this year? Probably not. No. 1s are 128-0 against No. 16s and just three of those games have been decided by one possession. Parity is occurring in college basketball, but not quite to that level. Don’t be the goober that picks a No. 1 to lose. Also, 19 of the last 25 national championship games have involved at least one No. 1 seed.
On the flipside, a No. 1 has lost to an 8/9 five times since 2010 with Kansas, Villanova and Gonzaga each being one of those victims. I’m just sayin…
2 – No. 2s are vulnerable in the second round
Five times since 2000 has a No. 2 lost in the first round. While four of those have happened since 2012 (including Duke in 2012), I wouldn’t get too crazy picking them. However, somebody is going home in the Round of 32. No. 2s have been upset in the second round 23 times since 2000 and it’s happened in each of the last three years. And this year those teams are especially dangerous. Wichita State has four wins over 1-2 seeds since 2006. VCU has eight tournament wins since 2011 as the lower-seeded team and Dayton went to the Elite Eight in 2014 as an 11-seed.
3 – No. 5 vs. No. 12 picks are overrated
Are these games typically close? Yes. But EVERYONE picks these upsets because of the perceived historical trend. But, 5/12 matchups actually trail 6/11 games for the most upsets all-time (52-49). With that being said, there has been a 5/12 upset in eight of the last nine tournaments and this year’s crop of No. 12s is really strong. Even if you don’t pick this upset, watch the games. Since 2010, 14 of the 28 matchups have been decided by five points or fewer.
4 – Not so lucky number 7…
Well, kind of. Earlier I mentioned how No. 2s typically struggle in the second round – specifically against 7-seeds, but recently No. 7s have struggled to get out of the first round. Since 2009, No. 7s are 18-14 in the opening round and 14 of those games have been decided by five points or less. Last year it was an even 2-2 split.
5- Three and out
Since 2010, six No. 3s have lost in the first round making it the most likely of the top-four seeds to be upset. In each of the last four tournaments we’ve seen a 3/14 upset and one of those programs, Baylor, finds itself on the 3-line against a New Mexico State that is typically a tough out. Florida Gulf Coast is on the 14-line this year. “Dunk City” made a Sweet 16 run in 2013 as a 15-seed. The Eagles nearly doubled down on that last year, trailing No. 1 North Carolina by one at the half before losing by 16.
6 – Wildest out West
Someone is going home early out west. This doesn’t necessarily mean the region itself, but lookout for teams playing on the western side of the country. In the last four NCAA Tournaments, there have been 22 instances of a top-5 seed being upset by a team seeded 10 or lower, 14 of those have happened west of the Mississippi River. San Jose and Kansas City have combined for five of those, those cities just happen to be regional hosts this year. Look for first-weekend sites Tulsa, Salt Lake City and Sacramento to have some fireworks.
7 – Gonzaga’s slightly awkward
Gonzaga is the favorite to win a national championship this year – according to ESPN’s BPI – but history doesn’t love the Bulldogs. Yes, Gonzaga lost to No. 9 Wichita State as a 1-seed back in 2013. In addition to that, Gonzaga’s season has been ended by a double-digit seed four times during the Mark Few era. But, the worst news for the Zags this weekend is the possibility of seeing Northwestern. The Bulldogs are 2-4 vs. the Big 10 in the NCAA Tournament, scoring less than 66 points in all four losses. Northwestern is a typical Big 10 team in that their pace is insanely slow (ranks 300th according to KenPom) and their defense is stout (ranks 35th according to KenPom). Gonzaga has been a top-3 seed five times since 2004. Three of those years the Bulldogs failed to make it to the second weekend.
8 – North Carolina, Kentucky almost Sweet 16 locks
As much as I hate to say it, UNC and Kentucky might be locks for the second weekend. Don’t get me wrong, I think Wichita State or Dayton has an excellent chance of upsetting Kentucky and I don’t really love this North Carolina team that struggles to get key stops defensively, but history LOVES these two. They are Blue Bloods for a reason. North Carolina is 27-4 as a No.1 seed under Roy Williams and all four of those losses have been in the Final Four or Elite Eight against teams on the top two lines. Both of Roy’s titles have come as a No. 1 seed. Kentucky has never lost to a double-digit seed under Cal and are 10-1 against teams seeded seventh or lower; the lone loss came to UCONN in the 2014 national championship.
9 – Early bird gets the worm
Teams that play in the First Four have won at least one additional game each year since 2011. Furthermore, three of those teams made it to the second weekend. Tennessee in 2014, LaSalle in 2013 and VCU in 2011 all won multiple tournament games. This actually matters. There’s been a 6/11 upset every year since 2005. In fact, No. 11s are 15-13 vs. No. 6s in the first round. It doesn’t stop there, No. 11s are 6-7 vs. No. 3s since 2010. Basically, 3-seeds statistically will break your heart more times than not.
10 – If you’re using mascots to pick your bracket…
Stop. There’s nothing worse than that lady or 10-year old kid that picks her bracket based on mascots or uniforms rather than actual basketball logic. That might be the worst part of March, knowing you lost to someone that literally put zero effort into their bracket. So, if you’re randomly picking your teams, keep it to yourself. If you are picking based on mascots, here are some important things to remember:
- Dogs are always better than cats.
- Humans are worse than both.
- Nevada’s Wolfpack isn’t quite as good at The Hangover’s Wolfpack.
- Maryland should lose in the first round every year (turtles can’t fight).
- Dayton and Kansas have the best nicknames from a historical perspective.
- Saint Mary’s and Iona share the Gael mascot, I had to Google what that is.
- Vermont is the Catamount, which is technically a cat but based on name alone they should go to the Final Four.
- Gamecocks (South Carolina, Jacksonville State) just sound intimidating.
- Kent State is the Golden Flash, which is almost as cool as Wichita State being the Shockers.
Other random notes
- The first Thursday and Friday of the NCAA Tournament should be a national holiday
- Tom Izzo might break KU’s heart in the second round
- I pick Duke to win the national championship almost every single year, that way I never have to root against them
- If you haven’t heard of Mike Daum, he’s going to give Gonzaga fits. Averages 25.3 PPG, with a 51-point game this year.
- I don’t think Villanova makes it out of the first weekend.
- Iowa State vs. Nevada might blow a fuse on the scoreboard
- Texas Southern has a pair of guards that are high-major talents that just ended up at TSU. North Carolina will win the game, but they might struggle to defend Trae Jefferson and Zach Lofton.
- For our sake, I wish Lonzo Ball and Steph Curry could trade places just so we can see Steph in the tournament one more time