Conference Preview: Raccoon River
The Teams Nate Mueller ADM (13-10, 9-5): If you’re looking for a team to make a big-time leap this season, it may be the Tigers. Three starters return to a team that started the year 7-2 before a mid-season swoon,…
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Nate MuellerADM (13-10, 9-5): If you’re looking for a team to make a big-time leap this season, it may be the Tigers. Three starters return to a team that started the year 7-2 before a mid-season swoon, and nine of their 10 losses last year came by single digits. They’re led by the guard tandem of Nate Mueller (15.5, 53 3PM) and Jaxson Millsap (11.3, 50 3PM), who will give ADM one of the best shooting backcourts in the class. Nathan Conrad (6.1) is the other returning starter, giving them some size and toughness in the paint, and expect to see some increased production out of 6-7 junior big man Dylan Anderson (2.7). If he can give them quality minutes in the paint and turn into a viable offensive threat, it could cause defenses to collapse a bit and take some of the perimeter pressure off of Mueller and Millsap. Also back are Tate Stine-Smith (6.2) and Caden Mager (3.1), who saw plenty of time off the bench last year. Mueller was great at the free throw line last year (88.5%), but the rest of the team was just 58.4%. They’ll need to improve on that number if they want to turn those single digit losses into some more wins this winter.
Connor Drew
Ballard (15-10, 8-7): The Bombers were probably the biggest surprise among 3A state tournament qualifiers last year, but they got hot at the right time before running into a buzzsaw in Norwalk in the opening round in Des Moines. The good news for them is that star junior forward Connor Drew (17.2, 9.6 rebounds) returns after a great sophomore season that saw him emerge as one of the best low-post players in the state. He’s an efficient, 6-6 big man with a good back-to-the-basket game and the ability to occasionally step out and knock down jumpers. This group was very up and down last year. They followed a seven-game win streak by losing seven of their next 10 games, and they’ll need to become more consistent this season if they want to be seen as a real threat. Mason Murphy (8.0, 107 assists) is the only other returning starter, while 6-6 sophomore big man Kale Krogh (3.1) is the only other returnee who saw significant time. If he can keep improving and becoming a threat, they’ll be able to put a pair of quality big men on the floor, which will make them dangerous. A lot of holes need to be filled here, but with Connor Drew in tow, they’ll be dangerous.
Bondurant-Farrar (10-12, 4-10): The Bluejays were strong in non-conference play last year, and also showed that they could be dangerous in league play, posting a win over Winterset. But they only bring back four of their top eight from last year’s team, and lose the top two scorers. Marquis George-Townes (8.6) is the leading returning scorer, although Braden Miller (8.5) is right there with him. Neither of them are much of a shooting threat, so they’ll need the two other returnees, Ben Trulson (2.8) and Nathan Anderson (2.4) to emerge as the shooting threats. With quite a few very talented players returning in the league, it’ll be tough for B-F to compete with the upper-echelon teams.
Boone (12-8, 7-6): There is a ton of turnover coming in Boone, as Quali Sporaa (9.4) is the only returnee for the Toreadors who scored more than nine total points last season. Sporaa made 18 3s last season (tied for second on the team) at a 38.3% clip, so he’s a capable scoring threat, but there are a ton of question marks all over the rest of the roster.
Carlisle (10-13, 6-8): The cupboard isn’t quite as bare in Carlisle as it is in Boone, but the Wildcats do have a lot of production to replace following the graduation of their top three scorers from last year’s team, including high-scoring guard Collin Lister, who averaged 24.5 points a game. Nate Norton (6.3) is a solid piece to start building around. He finished fourth in scoring last year, dished out 52 assists (against 22 turnovers) and made 29 of his 64 attempts from 3 (45.3%). Hayden Amos (5.4) led the team in rebounding and Jace Vollstedt (1.9) has a fair amount of experience off the bench, and should give the ‘Cats a solid secondary ball handler alongside Norton. This group should probably be a bit more balanced this season, and they may need to rely on the defensive end of the floor a bit more this winter.
Colby Vincent
Carroll (18-5, 13-3): The Tigers spent most of last season ranked within the top 10 in 3A, and three of their five losses came to state tournament qualifying teams (Winterset twice, and 4A Sioux City East), with no loss coming by more than 10 points (Sioux City East). Simply put, they were one of the most consistent teams in the state last season, and they should be quite good again this year. Two starters return in Karter Lein (11.5) and Colby Vincent (11.9), who combined to make 95 3-pointers last season and will give the Tigers one of the best shooting backcourts in 3A. In addition to that firepower, Colby Christensen (4.1, 26 3PM, 42.6 3P%) is also back after a good season off the bench. In all, seven players who averaged at least 3.0 a game last season return, meaning Carroll will have plenty of experience, even if only two starters are back. Tory Feldman (4.6) and Chase Gladden (5.8) provide some size inside the arc, while Jacob Tunning (3.9) is another capable perimeter threat to add to the mix. Look for sophomore guard Nick Macke (3.0) to become a vital piece for this group, as he should see some primary ball handling responsibilities coming his way at some point soon. Carroll is a consistent winning program, and that tradition will continue this winter. The amount of shooting they can put on the floor with Lein, Vincent, Christensen and Tunning will be unmatched by many teams, and if they can get hot at the right time, this team could make some real noise.
Perry (0-20, 0-14): The 2015-16 state qualifying season for the Bluejays has to feel like a long time ago given how last season went. Perry ranked last in 3A in scoring (28.9 points a game) and they allowed 71 a night. Nothing in the underlying numbers really shows much reason to think they’ll be more competitive this year. They bring back their top four from last year’s roster, led by Brendan Ivory (13.0) and Keghan West (5.8), who led the team in rebounding. With lots of experience back, they may be a bit more competitive this year, but it’ll be really tough to compete against the high-level teams at the top of this league.
Easton Darling
Winterset (18-7, 10-4): They’re small, but they’re quick. That’s probably the best way to describe the Huskies, who had nobody bigger than 6-1 in the starting lineup last year, and nobody bigger than 6-2 as a key contributor for their 3A third place team. This team caught fire down the stretch last season, winning 14 of their last 17 games, and giving eventual champion Oskaloosa a real scare in the semifinals. They bring four starters back from that group, headlined by lefty scoring guard Easton Darling (20.2), who could be among the state leaders in scoring if he’s able to improve his perimeter shooting numbers (40-156 last year, 25.6%). He’s a better shooter than he showed last season, and a bounceback could mean huge numbers for him. He’ll be joined in the starting lineup by returnees Dawson Forgy (6.4), Casey Young (7.0) and Brock Johnson (6.1), and likely Hunter Farr (6.5), who had success off the bench last year, leading the team with 43 made 3s. A 5-11 post player, Johnson is actually a really good athlete who plays bigger than that size, and is incredibly tough. He led the team in rebounding last year, and is relentless on the glass. Young is also a quality interior option who shot over 65% from the floor last season. Casey Kleemeier, last year’s second leading scorer at 14.8 points a game, is a big loss, but he was the only senior on the roster, so plenty of experience is back. This scrappy, quick and athletic group got a taste of real success last year, and they’ll be hungry for more this time around. With one of the state’s best scorers leading the way in Darling, and one of the quickest lineups in the state surrounding him, this Husky group is going to cause headaches for a lot of teams this winter.
Projected Order of Finish
1. Winterset
2. Carroll
3. ADM
4. Ballard
5. Carlisle
6. Bondurant-Farrar
7. Boone
8. Perry
Analysis: Winterset is considered one of the favorites in 3A this year, and should be considered the favorite to take the league crown. Carroll, ADM and Ballard will battle it out for second, and each of those teams is capable of making a run to State given the right draw. This is a really strong top half of the conference.
Preseason Player of the Year
2020 Easton Darling, Winterset: 20.2 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.6 steals
A skilled lefty guard, Darling is not only the leading returnee in scoring, but also in steals. He’ll pace a Husky attack that should be among the best in 3A, and a real state title contender.
Biggest Sleeper
2020 Nate Norton, Carlisle: The 6-3 senior guard will have his chance to really shine this year following the graduation of a lot of talent from last year’s Wildcats. Norton made 45.3% of his 3s last season, posted a 52-22 assist-to-turnover ratio and also notched 20 steals. He should thrive in a much larger role this year.
Players to Watch
2020 Easton Darling, Winterset
2020 Casey Young, Winterset
2022 Dawson Forgy, Winterset
2021 Hunter Farr, Winterset
2020 Brock Johnson, Winterset
2021 Connor Drew, Ballard
2021 Mason Murphy, Ballard
2021 Nate Mueller, ADM
2020 Jaxson Millsap, ADM
2021 Tate Stine-Smith, ADM
2020 Nathan Conrad, ADM
2020 Colby Vincent, Carroll
2020 Karter Lein, Carroll
2020 Chase Gladden, Carroll
2020 Brendan Ivory, Perry
2020 Muhamed Abdelnabi, Perry
2020 Keghan West, Perry
2020 Quali Sporaa, Boone
2020 Marquis George-Townes, Bondurant-Farrar
2021 Braden Miller, Bondurant-Farrar
2020 Nate Norton, Carlisle
2020 Hayden Amos, Carlisle